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Haaretz published this Security Analysis (March 1, 2026) arguing that the Gulf states’ long-standing strategy of containing Iran without triggering open war has effectively collapsed due to Iran’s direct missile and drone attacks across the Gulf .

Below is a structured summary of the article’s key arguments and the broader context:

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1️⃣ The Old Gulf Strategy: Contain, Don’t Confront

For years, Gulf states — especially Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman — followed a careful formula:

Rely on the U.S. as security guarantor

Avoid direct war with Iran

Build missile defense systems (Patriot, THAAD)

Normalize ties with Israel (e.g., Abraham Accords)

Maintain economic growth and stability

Even after the 2025 “12-day war,” Gulf governments publicly condemned escalation while quietly preferring a weakened but intact Iran over regime collapse .

The assumption was:

> Iran could be managed through deterrence, diplomacy, and proxy containment — without full-scale regional war.

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2️⃣ What Changed: Iran Hit the Gulf Directly

According to regional reporting, Iran has now launched sustained missile and drone attacks not only at Israel but at Gulf states hosting U.S. assets .

A Financial Times briefing (shared on Reddit) reports:

“Over 25 waves” of ballistic missiles and drones

Targets included Israel, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Iraq

Hundreds of drones and dozens of ballistic missiles launched

Civilian infrastructure (hotels, ports, airports) hit

The UAE alone reported:

More than 150 ballistic missiles

Over 500 drones

Casualties and infrastructure damage

This is unprecedented. In prior crises (2019–2020 tanker tensions, 2025 war), Iran largely avoided sustained direct attacks on Gulf capitals.

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3️⃣ Why Haaretz Says the Strategy Is “Shattered”

The analysis suggests three major consequences:

A. Gulf Neutrality Is No Longer Safe

Gulf states that tried to avoid being dragged into the conflict were hit anyway.

This undermines the idea that staying neutral protects them .

B. U.S. Security Guarantees Under Strain

Missile-defense interceptors are reportedly being depleted at alarming rates.

Defense analysts warn interceptor stocks are “dangerously low,” creating vulnerability .

If U.S.-backed systems cannot sustain defense, Gulf states may question:

Washington’s reliability

The sustainability of extended deterrence

C. Economic Model at Risk

The Gulf’s political legitimacy is built on:

Stability

Tourism

Aviation hubs

Energy exports

Iran targeting airports and ports threatens that foundation.

Mint reports Gulf leaders now believe Iran “can’t be allowed to get away with this unprecedented onslaught” .

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4️⃣ Could This End the Islamic Republic?

Haaretz raises the possibility that:

A wider war could threaten the survival of Iran’s regime.

But regime collapse could create a “much more complicated and violent reality” .

Why complicated?

History offers warnings:

During the 2011–2012 Strait of Hormuz crisis, Iran threatened to close the vital energy chokepoint .

Iran has long invested in asymmetric “anti-access” strategies in the Strait .

If instability spreads:

Strait of Hormuz disruptions

Energy market shock

Proxy fragmentation

Internal Iranian factional conflict

A collapsing regime could be more unpredictable than a contained one.

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5️⃣ Strategic Turning Point for the Gulf

Analysts now suggest Gulf states face three options:

1. Deepen military integration with the U.S. and Israel

2. Push urgently for ceasefire and negotiated settlement

3. Explore new regional security architecture independent of Washington

But none are easy.

Even Reddit geopolitical discussions reflect a long-standing Gulf dilemma:

> They have “nothing to gain by getting involved — and quite a bit to lose” .

That dilemma may now be over.

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6️⃣ The Bigger Picture

The Haaretz thesis appears to be:

The Gulf tried to hedge.

They tried to contain.

They tried to normalize.

They tried to stay out.

Iran’s direct attacks have forced them into the war’s strategic geometry whether they wanted it or not.

This could mark:

The end of the post-2019 containment model.

The collapse of managed rivalry.

The beginning of a new regional order — either through war or forced diplomatic realignment.

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If you would like, I can next:

Analyze how this affects Pakistan’s strategic calculus,

Or draft a blog-ready geopolitical analysis in your usual narrative style,

Or map scenarios (war escalation vs. negotiated reset).

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