Haaretz published this Security Analysis (March 1, 2026) arguing that the Gulf states’ long-standing strategy of containing Iran without triggering open war has effectively collapsed due to Iran’s direct missile and drone attacks across the Gulf . Below is a structured summary of the article’s key arguments and the broader context: --- 1️⃣ The Old Gulf Strategy: Contain, Don’t Confront For years, Gulf states — especially Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman — followed a careful formula: Rely on the U.S. as security guarantor Avoid direct war with Iran Build missile defense systems (Patriot, THAAD) Normalize ties with Israel (e.g., Abraham Accords) Maintain economic growth and stability Even after the 2025 “12-day war,” Gulf governments publicly condemned escalation while quietly preferring a weakened but intact Iran over regime collapse . The assumption was: > Iran could be managed through deterrence, diplomacy, and proxy containment — without full-scale regional ...
On February 23, 2026, asked a question that now echoes across every capital from Washington to Tehran: Iran: War or Deal? Just days ago, that question sounded theoretical. Today, it feels terrifyingly real. Missile alerts. Naval buildups. Diplomatic whispers. Strategic leaks. Social media hysteria. The region is once again standing on a knife’s edge. But beneath the noise lies something deeper — something more dangerous than missiles. Hubris . The Theater of Strength Alpher described President ’s approach as a kind of geopolitical “ Godfather strategy ” — overwhelming force as negotiation. An offer Iran “can’t refuse.” Aircraft carriers deployed. Bombers positioned. War rhetoric amplified. All part of a pressure campaign. But history in this region teaches a brutal lesson: Displays of strength often produce displays of defiance. Iran is not a fragile regime improvising survival. It is an institutionalized revolutionary state that has survived four decades of sanct...