Losing the Public: Israel’s Iran War Faces a Crisis at Home

🧭 Core Argument

Scheindlin’s central point is simple but powerful:

👉 Public support for the Iran war in Israel is already declining—much faster than expected.

And more importantly:

👉 This war is not giving the political boost that wars usually give leaders.

📉 1. Rapid Decline in Public Support

In most wars, there’s an initial “rally around the flag” effect.
But in this case, support started dropping within weeks, not months.

Why?

Israelis are seeing:
- No clear victory path
- High risks of escalation
- Uncertain objectives

👉 This creates early fatigue, not long-term unity.

⚠️ 2. Lack of Clear Strategic Goal

Scheindlin highlights a key issue:

👉 People don’t understand what “winning” looks like.

Is the goal:

Destroy Iran’s nuclear program?
Deter Iran regionally?
Regime change?

Without clarity:

Public confidence erodes
Skepticism replaces patriotism

🔥 3. Fear of Regional Escalation

The war is not seen as contained.

Israelis fear:

Hezbollah entering fully
Wider regional war
Economic disruption
Civilian vulnerability

👉 This transforms the war from “necessary” to potentially reckless in public perception.

🧠 4. Post-October 7 Trust Collapse

The shadow of past failures (especially intelligence/security lapses) still lingers.

Scheindlin suggests:

Many Israelis no longer trust leadership judgment
War decisions are viewed through a lens of:
- political survival
- damage control

👉 This weakens automatic support for military action.

🗳️ 5. No Political “War Boost” for Netanyahu

This is one of the most striking findings:

👉 Netanyahu is NOT gaining in polls despite being in wartime leadership.

Historically:

Israeli leaders gain support during wars

But now:

Polls remain stagnant or negative
Public sees him as:
- Part of the problem
- Not the solution

⚖️ 6. War Could Still Decide Elections

Even though support is fading, Scheindlin warns:

👉 The war could reshape the next elections dramatically

Possible scenarios:

If war worsens → political backlash
If war stabilizes → temporary recovery
If failures emerge → leadership collapse

👉 So even without current support, the war is politically explosive.

🧩 7. Underlying Insight (Most Important)

Scheindlin’s deeper message isn’t just about this war:

👉 Israeli society is changing in how it responds to war.

Old pattern:

Fear → unity → support government

New pattern:

Fear → questioning → distrust → division

⚡ Bottom Line

This isn’t just “war fatigue.”

It’s something deeper:

👉 A crisis of confidence in leadership, strategy, and purpose.

And that’s why:

Support is fading early
Political gains are absent
And the outcome—military or political—is far from predictable

Comments

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