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Was 2025 a Good Year for Israeli Security? Why 2026 May Be Far Worse



( This analysis is based primarily on the strategic assessment and outlook of Israeli security analyst and former Mossad officer Yossi Alpher, expanded with recent data, regional developments and independent synthesis.)


At first glance, Israel’s security narrative for 2025 almost writes itself: decisive military pressure against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Hostages returned from Gaza. Iran’s nuclear program set back. Borders that once seemed on the brink of explosion holding a cautious calm.

Set aside internal realities—and yes, by many superficial measures, 2025 looked like a year of suppressed threats and battlefield successes.

But when the smoke clears, the key question is not what was destroyed, but what was built. And the answer is: very little that actually strengthens Israel’s long-term security.

The Myth of Victory: Superficial Stability, Not Strategic Success

To be clear: Israel’s military maintained its edge. Hamas was battered. Iran’s nuclear ambitions were disrupted. Hezbollah was deterred for now.

But none of these outcomes amount to lasting peace — or even sustainable deterrence.

  • Hamas survives: It remains a political and military force and is reestablishing control over large swaths of Gaza, especially under Trump’s ill-defined postwar map.
  • No Palestinian alternative: Israel has blocked every credible Palestinian leadership development, locking in Hamas by default.
  • Iran and Hezbollah rebuild: The so-called victories of 2025 are fragile and reversible.

This is not a triumph. It’s a lull. A dangerous one.

The Hidden Crisis Within: The Collapse of Israel’s Military Backbone

All the military gains of 2025 are undermined by a deepening manpower and morale crisis within the Israel Defense Forces — the very institution that must hold the line in 2026.

Career Officer Exodus: A National Security Red Flag

Recent data reveals a historic collapse in the IDF’s core human capital:

  • Around 600 career military personnel — including senior officers and professional non-commissioned officers — have submitted requests for early retirement, citing burnout, poor conditions, and a lack of legislative support for promised benefits.
  • Competitive promotion pools have shrunk sharply: where once ~800 candidates competed for 400 lieutenant colonel slots, now only about 500 do — meaning anyone willing to stay is promoted, not just the best.
  • Surveys show a significant drop in career officers planning to stay in service — only 42% expressed willingness to remain, down sharply from earlier figures.

This is not a statistical glitch or isolated trend. It is a systemic breakdown of professional military commitment, the lifeblood of a modern defense force.

Why It Matters

  • Career officers are not just commanders — they are the mentors, trainers, planners, and institutional memory of the IDF.
  • The depletion of experienced leaders forces rapid, superficial promotions that weaken readiness and sacrifice competence for completion of rosters.
  • The loss of trust — between soldiers, leadership, and the state — corrodes morale just when it is needed most.

An army without its best does not deter; it deteriorates.

A Society at War With Itself

Israel’s internal condition in 2025 further corrodes its security:

  • Politicized security institutions: Senior positions in Shin Bet and Mossad have gone to loyalists rather than professionals, weakening institutional credibility.
  • Settler militias in the West Bank are increasingly acting with open encouragement from political leadership, undermining law and order while provoking new cycles of violence.
  • Erosion of social cohesion: More Israelis — especially secular and liberal ones — are leaving or contemplating departure, weakening societal resilience.

Israeli security is no longer just about borders and gun barrels — it’s about the cohesion of an entire society. On this measure, 2025 delivered losses far more profound than any battlefield win.

2026 Security Prospects: A Year of Rising Danger

As 2026 approaches, the structural fault lines in Israeli security widen:

Gaza: Chaos, Not Peace

President Trump’s Phase 2 plan calls for an international presence and reconstruction — but neither Israel nor Hamas enthusiastically supports it. Netanyahu’s historical record of undermining the second phase of agreements warns that Phase 2 may be a self-sabotaged illusion. International investment, foreign forces, and conditional governance will not substitute for genuine political solutions.

Expect Gaza in 2026 to remain volatile, unstable, and ultimately unresolved.

The West Bank: Escalation Brewing

As pressure mounts over Gaza schemes, right-wing elements within Israel’s government will likely accelerate settlement expansion and “Judaization” projects. This will fuel Palestinian resistance, spark more attacks, and widen friction with Jordan — raising the specter of a new multi-front crisis.

If another shock akin to October 7 is to occur, the West Bank is a likely flashpoint.

The North: The Only Tentative Hope

On the northern front, there is some cautious ground for optimism. Direct talks with Lebanon and Syria have started, backed by active U.S. engagement. Progress will be slow, uneven, and fraught — but incremental movement toward more stable borders is possible.

This may be the one area in 2026 where Israel’s security is not deteriorating.

Global Fallout: Isolation and Anger

Internationally, 2026 may bring more of the same:

  • Increased global criticism and antisemitism, partly fueled by Israel’s conduct in Gaza.
  • Trump’s volatile alliance, offering support but demanding policy compliance.
  • European disengagement and growing diplomatic isolation.

Friends in authoritarian capitals may offer transactional ties, but these are not stable foundations for genuine security or legitimacy.

Violence Will Persist

Israeli policy still assumes that killing militant leaders reduces terrorism — an assumption consistently disproven by decades of global experience. Islamist extremists, meanwhile, continue to believe that killing Jews advances their aims — ensuring that violence, terror attacks, and retaliatory cycles remain part of 2026’s reality.

The Bottom Line: What Will Determine 2026

Israel’s security prospects for 2026 hinge on two variables:

  1. President Trump’s unpredictable policies, and
  2. Israel’s elections and governance choices.

If political leadership prioritizes ideology over competence, avoids internal reckoning, and doubles down on division rather than reconciliation, then 2026 will be far worse than 2025.

Victory isn’t defined by what was destroyed in 2025 — but by whether Israel builds anything stronger, wiser, and more unified going forward.

Because an army without its leaders, a society without cohesion, and a security policy without reflection is not secure at all.


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