"Hamas Isn't an Existential Threat; the Threats of the Future Are Far Greater" ( Maj. General Rtd.) Yitzhak Brik. Haaretz. Key Points.
Introduction of Yitzhak Brik.
Yitzhak Brik is a retired Israeli IDF General. He was born on November 7, 1947. Brik served in the Armored Corps as a brigade, division, and troops commander, and also commanded the IDF military colleges. He is also a Fellow at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University, Herzliya. During the Yom Kippur War, he served as a reserve company commander and received the Medal of Courage. For about a decade, he served as the Soldier's Complaints Commissioner (Ombudsman) in the Ministry of Defense. More recently, Brik has been a harsh critic of the IDF's preparedness for war and is considered in Israel as the "prophet of wrath" of the 2023 Israel–Hamas war.
Yitzhak Brik writes at Haaretz "Hamas Isn't an Existential Threat; the Threats of the Future Are Far Greater"
Yitzhak Brik, a retired Israeli Major General, has warned of Israel's potential collapse within a year if the war of attrition against Hamas and Hezbollah continues[1][3]. Brik's opinion piece, published in Haaretz, conveys a critical assessment of the ongoing battles in Gaza, emphasizing the significant losses Israel is facing[1][2][4].
Key points from Brik's analysis: Dire warning. Brik suggests that Israel is "galloping towards the edge of an abyss" and could collapse within a year if the current conflict continues[1].
Critique of Israeli officials: He casts doubts on claims made by Israeli officials regarding Hamas's surrender and the capture of its leader, Yahya Sinwar[1]. He accuses Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, along with IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, of misleading the Israeli public[1].
Futility of "total victory": Brik dismisses the idea of achieving a total victory in Gaza as "nonsense"[1].
Hostage deal: He believes that failing to reach a hostage deal with Hamas could lead to a regional war that would endanger Israel[1]. He also states that a hostage swap deal has become impossible due to new conditions introduced by Netanyahu[1].
Hamas' restored capabilities: Israeli media, citing security sources, have reported that Hamas has successfully restored its capabilities in the northern Gaza Strip, with an estimated 3,000 fighters resuming operations[2].
Israel's escalating losses: Brik underscores the significant and escalating losses Israel is facing, arguing that the war is exerting a far heavier toll on Israel than on Hamas[2].
Military exhaustion and Skill degradation: He argues that soldiers are exhausted and are losing their skills for lack of training, especially since many are leaving their courses before completing them[2].
Need to concentrate forces: Brik points out the need to concentrate occupation forces in other sectors, namely in the north and the West Bank due to ongoing escalations, occupation forces will have to withdraw from Gaza because there are "not enough forces to fight on several fronts at the same time"[2].
Preempting collapse: Brik suggests that by agreeing to a deal to return captives and prisoners, the battles in Gaza must end[2].
What are the main arguments Brik makes about the future threats to Israel?
Yitzhak Brik, a retired Israeli Major General, has expressed concerns about the future threats facing Israel, particularly the potential for a devastating missile attack[1]. He has also warned of a possible collapse of Israel if the war of attrition against Hamas and Hezbollah continues[2].
Key arguments made by Brik:
Existential threat from missiles
Brik warns that Israel faces an existential threat from the growing arsenal of missiles, rockets, and drones possessed by Iran and its allies.
He suggests that Israel could be subjected to thousands of attacks daily in a future regional war, potentially as devastating as a nuclear attack[1].
Lack of preparedness: Brik has criticized Israel’s military and political leadership, stating that they are ill-prepared for the potential devastation such a war could bring[1]. He accuses them see of arrogance, smugness, and disconnection from reality, and says that they have learned nothing from the failures in Gaza[1].
Multi-front war: Brik warns that Israel is not prepared for a multi-front war and could face enemies from Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and the West Bank, including radical Arab Israelis[3]. He also notes that pro-Iranian militias are awaiting Iran’s orders in Syria, while the Syrian Army is rebuilding itself[3].
Ammunition shortages: According to Brik, one of Israel’s biggest problems is its ammunition shortages[3].
Need for leadership change: Brik calls for an immediate replacement of Israel’s military and political leadership to prepare for what he sees as the “most severe security challenge” in the country’s history[1]. He believes that until a leadership change is enacted, Israel will remain vulnerable to an existential crisis[1].
Collapse within a year: Brik warns that Israel could "collapse within a year" if its current war against Hamas and Hezbollah continues[2]. He attributes this to the ongoing war of attrition[2].
Dangers of "total victory: Brik dismisses the idea of achieving a total victory in Gaza as "nonsense"[2].
Importance of US support: He stresses the need for U.S. support and involvement, arguing that without it, Israel risks severe repercussions that could escalate into a regional war[5].
What specific future threats does Brik believe are more significant than Hamas?
While Brik acknowledges the threat posed by Hamas, he argues that other future threats are more significant to Israel's security[1][6].
How does Brik describe the current state of Israel's military preparedness?
Brik has been a consistent critic of Israel's military preparedness, particularly regarding the ground forces[4][8]. He has argued that the IDF is not adequately prepared for war[7][4].
Key points from Brik's assessment:
Not ready for war: Brik has stated that Israel's forces are not ready for war, a claim he made during his tenure as the IDF Ombudsman[4].
IDF weaknesses : He challenges the perception of Israel's military invincibility, arguing that the IDF has been weakened due to budget cuts and strategic misjudgments[2]. He also points out the IDF's inability to sustain a prolonged presence in Gaza, attributing this to insufficient manpower and logistical support[2].
Need for strategic overhaul: Brik calls for a strategic overhaul in Israel’s military planning, stressing the importance of rebuilding the IDF’s capabilities to ensure robust defense and offense in future conflicts. This includes developing advanced technologies and increasing manpower to sustain prolonged military operations if necessary[2].
Ammunition shortages: According to Brik, one of Israel’s biggest problems is its ammunition shortages.
Citations:
[1] Israel could 'collapse within a year' if war of attrition ... https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-could-collapse-within-a-year-if-war-of-attrition-continues-warns-retired-general/3310525
[2] Hamas is not collapsing, 'Israel' is: Israeli media https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/hamas-is-not-collapsing---israel--is--israeli-media
[3] Pakistan Observer https://www.facebook.com/pakobserver/photos/retired-israeli-major-general-yitzhak-brik-warned-that-israel-could-face-collaps/1064572022344572/
[4] It is not Hamas that is collapsing, but Israel, says retired ... https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240904-it-is-not-hamas-that-is-collapsing-but-israel-says-retired-israeli-general/
Citations:
[1] Israel Faces 'Existential Threat' Worse than Nuclear Attack https://www.palestinechronicle.com/israel-faces-existential-threat-worse-than-nuclear-attack-ex-general-warns/
[2] Israel could 'collapse within a year' if war of attrition ... https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-could-collapse-within-a-year-if-war-of-attrition-continues-warns-retired-general/3310525
[3] Experts discuss when the right time is for Israel to attack Iran https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-820938
[4] Why Israel failed to anticipate the October 7 attacks https://www.futureuae.com/ar-22/Mainpage/Item/8887/cassandra-of-gaza-why-israel-failed-to-anticipate-the-october-7-attacks
[5] Israel's Military Challenges: Insights from General Yitzhak ... https://gist.ly/youtube-summarizer/israels-military-challenges-insights-from-general-yitzhak-brick
[6] Time for regime change in 'Israel', Res. General Brik says https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/time-for-regime-change-in--israel---res--general-brik-says
[7] How can the IDF meet future challenges? - Globes English https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-how-can-the-idf-meet-future-challenges-1001464629
[8] Future Challenges for Israel's Iron Dome Rocket Defenses https://spp.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2019-07/Future%20Challenges%20for%20Israel%E2%80%99s%20Iron%20Dome%20Rocket%20Defenses%20021618.pdf
Citations:
[1] Bloody Cycle of Retaliation Must End, Secretary-General Tells ... https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15669.doc.htm
[2] The Israel-Hamas conflict: threats and security implications ... https://icct.nl/publication/israel-hamas-conflict-threats-and-security-implications-western-balkans
[3] The importance of understanding the differences between ... https://www.diis.dk/en/research/the-importance-of-understanding-the-differences-between-hamas-is-and-al-qaeda
[4] Beyond the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, the future looks ... https://theconversation.com/beyond-the-israel-hamas-ceasefire-the-future-looks-unclear-here-are-6-key-unanswered-questions-247558
[5] Exploring the Influence of Perceived Ingroup and Outgroup ... https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10454123/
[6] Future Challenges for Israel's Iron Dome Rocket Defenses https://spp.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2019-07/Future%20Challenges%20for%20Israel%E2%80%99s%20Iron%20Dome%20Rocket%20Defenses%20021618.pdf
[7] The longest war of Israel: against Hamas. Solutions? https://www.researchgate.net/post/The_longest_war_of_Israel_against_Hamas_Solutions
[8] A War They Both Are Losing: Israel, Hamas and the Plight ... https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/survival-online/2024/06/a-war-they-both-are-losing-israel-hamas-and-the-plight-of-gaza/
Citations:
[1] Israel Faces 'Existential Threat' Worse than Nuclear Attack https://www.palestinechronicle.com/israel-faces-existential-threat-worse-than-nuclear-attack-ex-general-warns/
[2] Israel's Military Challenges: Insights from General Yitzhak Brick https://gist.ly/youtube-summarizer/israels-military-challenges-insights-from-general-yitzhak-brick
[3] IDF: Brick is wrong – we are ready and prepared for war https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/idf-brick-is-wrong-we-are-ready-and-prepared-for-war-575454
[4] IDF Ombudsman Brick: Our forces are not ready for war https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/brick-our-forces-are-not-ready-for-war-574122
[5] Ex-general: Israel fighting war of attrition in Gaza https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240517-ex-general-israel-fighting-war-of-attrition-in-gaza/
[6] Israeli-Palestinian Conflict | Global Conflict Tracker https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/israeli-palestinian-conflict
[7] Why some Israeli generals believe their army is not ... https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/09/28/why-some-israeli-generals-believe-their-army-is-not-prepared-for-war
[8] Is the IDF Ready for War? - INSS https://www.inss.org.il/publication/idf-ready-war/
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