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Showing posts from May, 2023

A majority of global central banks now expect gold to grow as a reserve asset while views on the US dollar turn dimmer

Filip De Mott   May 30, 2023, 10:36 PM GMT+5  " A clear majority of central banks around the world now see gold becoming a more prominent reserve asset , suggesting the de-dollarization trend will continue in the coming years.  According to a World Gold Council survey, 62% of banks expect gold to account for a greater share of total reserves over the next five years , compared with last year's reading of 46%.  see gold becoming a more prominent reserve asset, suggesting the de-dollarization trend will continue in the coming years. Meanwhile, the survey found that half of respondents expect the dollar to account for 40%-50% of reserves in five years." " Central banks have been buying gold aggressively , especially after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year triggered sanctions on Moscow that froze its foreign currency holdings.  That has led to more countries trying to reduce their vulnerability to the dollar in their own economies, with gold emerging as a top

Russian war in Ukraine main reason for economic weakness in Germany - Economy Minister

  By  Reuters Last Updated:  May 26, 2023, 04:35 PM IST "The  Russian war  in  Ukraine  is the main reason that  Germany  suffered from economic weakness during the winter, a spokesperson for the economy ministry said on Friday." SOURCE: https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/russian-war-in-ukraine-main-reason-for-economic-weakness-in-germany-economy-minister/amp_articleshow/100528721.cms

RECESSION IN GERMANY IS A SIGN OF EUROPE'S DEINDUSTRIALIZATION.

By Philip Pilkington.  " Last week Germany   announced  that, after the government statistics agency revised its recent GDP figures, it was clear that the country was in recession. In recent history it has tended to hold up well as the global economy softened relative to some of Europe’s weaker economies. But this time it seems that Germany is leading the pack into recession. This is because the recession that is currently looming over Europe is fundamentally different from previous iterations. The coming recession is no simple turning of the business cycle. Instead, it could be the beginning of the deindustrialisation of the European economy, which no longer has access to cheap Russian energy. Since chatter about deindustrialisation started last year, there has been much confusion on the matter. Some appeared to think that deindustrialisation would mean the instantaneous closure of energy-starved European factories and mass layoffs. Others assumed that the crisis was over becau

SWISS POLICE CATFISH OPERATION HELPS IDENTIFY 2200 CHILD SEX OFFENDERS

"  Operation Ninja Turtle, a secret operation conducted over several years   by the Aargau cantonal police in collaboration with Swiss Federal police has resulted in arrests in several Swiss cantons and in several countries." "Suspected perpetrators in Switzerland and around the world have been reported to the relevant authorities, the Aargau cantonal police said on Tuesday. The 2,200 people identified are consumers of child sex abuse material and perpetrators who abuse children themselves. Arrests have been made in Switzerland, France, Romania, Croatia, Spain, Peru and Brazil.  The Swiss police used the online profile of a convicted child sex offender based in canton Aargau to identify other perpetrators of the crime. The convicted criminal operated under the pseudonym "Ninja Turtle" on GigaTribe, a platform that enables data to be exchanged anonymously." SOURCE: SWI swissinfo.ch

Brics Bank (NDB) is in talks with Saudi Arabia to become member as sanctions weigh on Russia

May 29, 2023   "Middle East money is the answer to plugging the growing financial gaps created in Asia by Western investment restrictions , or at least that’s the very wishful thinking of the regions’ financiers and governments. The latest example is courtesy of the New Development Bank (NDB). The Shanghai-based multilateral institution, known as the “Brics bank”, is in talks with Saudi Arabia to become a member as sanctions weigh on Russia, which is one of five founding members of the lender alongside Brazil, India, China and South Africa." SOURCE: https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/saudi-is-bric-crumbling-east-west-money-wall-2023-05-29/

Morgan Stanley's job cuts included a recently promoted MD in ECM

by  Sarah Butcher 15 hours ago "  If you were   promoted to managing director  (MD) at an investment bank in the past two years, you might suppose that you'll be immune to this year's job cuts. Not necessarily.  Last week's cuts at  Morgan Stanley  included Duncan Williamson , a London-based equity  capital markets  MD at the US bank. Williamson, who joined Morgan Stanley from Investec in 2015, was promoted to managing director in January 2022. He described his role as, "advising corporates and sponsors on M&A, strategy and ECM activity."" SOURCE :  https://www.efinancialcareers.com/news/2023/05/duncan-williamson-morgan-stanley

Brics is marching towards a unified currency

By Imran Khalid  May 30, 2023.  "(Naledi)  Pandor ( Foreign Minister of South Africa) has been cautioning against unwarranted assumptions of success, wisely acknowledging the intricate nature of economics and the imperative of considering the diverse interests of all countries involved. Her nuanced perspective underscores the importance of a well-informed and inclusive approach to any potential shift in the global financial landscape. “It’s a matter we must discuss and discuss properly. I don’t think we should always assume the idea will work, because economics is very difficult, and you have to have regard for all countries,” said Pandor, while answering a question about the Brics currency. " SOURCE: https://mg.co.za/thoughtleader/opinion/2023-05-30-brics-is-marching-towards-a-unified-currency/

Billionaire investor Nelson Peltz says money flying out of banks is dangerous. Here's his idea for the Fed that he says will stop more bank runs

  " A "very dangerous situation" has been building with customers yanking money from smaller banks and   pushing it into just a few of country's largest banks , co-founding partner of Trian Fund Management, (Nelson Peltz),   told CNBC on Monday .  He appeared after a  bank run at SVB, a key lender to tech startups , earlier this month triggered deposit outflows at other regional banks. Peltz said the deposit insurance program should be expanded by having customers at all banks pay insurance premiums to the Federal Reserve only if they want their accounts covered beyond the  FDIC's  typical insurance limit of $250,000. " " After SVB collapsed, the FDIC, the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve protected all accounts that spilled over the $250,000 insurance limit. Roughly 89% of SVB's $175 billion in deposits were uninsured at the end of last year. " SOURCE: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/svb-nelson-peltz-bank-crisis-fdic-

Kosovo-Serbia tension: History, latest flare-up and what’s next?

 " Violent clashes between Kosovo’s police and NATO-led peacekeepers on one side and local Serbs on the other have left several people injured on both sides. The situation has again fueled fears of a renewal of the 1998-99 conflict in Kosovo that claimed more than 10,000 lives and left more than one million homeless." Why are Serbia and Kosovo at odds? Kosovo is a mainly ethnic Albanian-populated  ( Majority  Muslim ) territory that was formerly a province of Serbia ( Majority Christian)  . It declared independence in 2008. Serbia has refused to recognise Kosovo’s statehood and still considers it part of Serbia, even though it has no formal control there. Kosovo’s independence has been  recognised by about 100 countries , including the United States. Russia, China and five European Union nations have sided with Serbia . The deadlock has kept tensions simmering and prevented full stabilisation of the Balkan region after the bloody wars in the 1990s." SOURCE: https://

How his daughter, Savannah's Tiktok videos brought down Papua New Guinea's foreign minister

May 26, 2023, 5:30 a. " Savannah , 23, posts videos from her luxury trip on Tiktok.   They show her shopping in high-end boutiques at the airport, eating expensive food and in a chauffeur-driven limousine.  Also present: her father Justin Tkatchenko.  But the videos of his daughter Savannah trigger a lot, because Justin Tkatchenko is actually on a business trip to London as Foreign Minister of Papua New Guinea .  He represents the Pacific country at the coronation of British King Charles III. The anger in Papua New Guinea is huge.  The reason: according to the World Bank, around 40 percent of the population lives below the poverty line.  The 23-year-old is heavily insulted online .  Justin Tkatchenko defended his daughter, making it worse. Maybe it's just not a good idea for politicians to take their offspring on a business trip, says Elena Panagiotidis in the new episode of "NZZ Akzent".  Meanwhile, the discussion about wasting taxpayers' money in Papua New Gui

The last survivor of the Credit Suisse leadership: why the new Swiss gigabank doesn't want to do without Ulrich Körner, "Uli the knife".

  " It was a memorable moment in March 2023 . The Swiss Federal Council, the banking supervisory authority and the heads of the two major Swiss banks had been discussing the end of Credit Suisse for days.  After a long weekend, on Sunday evening, March 19th, they finally appeared before the media.  The international financial world and Switzerland watched as the demise of CS and the takeover by UBS was announced. The CEO of CS, Ulrich Körner, who had only been appointed to the head of the bank eight months ago, was not present.  His nickname: " Uli the knife" .  Because Ulrich Körner is considered a merciless cost optimizer .  He puts the knife where it hurts .  People who have worked closely with him describe him as a logical numbers person.  But Körner fails, he cannot save CS from going under." SOURCE:  https://www.nzz.ch/podcast/wie-ulrich-koerner-den-untergang-der-cs-ueberlebte-nzz-akzent-ld.1738128

15 BASIS POINTS OR $0.15 FOR EACH $100. UBS's IQBAL KHAN THE EX OF CREDIT SUISSE HAS BEEN PUSHING HARD TO RETAIN TALENT AND BRING BACK FUNDS

Editorial Staff. May 30, 2023. Bl oomberg  said in an article late last week citing unnamed sources, that relationship managers at both firms will receive commissions of 15 basis points, or $0.15 for each $100 in new client money they can bring in. This news service has contacted UBS for comment and may update this article in due course. It hadn’t received a comment at the time of going to press." " The   Bloomberg   article noted that Iqbal Khan, the wealth boss at UBS, was in Singapore in recent days to meet with staff and clients. Khan, who previously worked at Credit Suisse, has been pushing hard to retain talent and bring back funds to the new combination.  A number of figures in the executive search and related fields have told  WealthBriefingAsia  that Credit Suisse bankers have left or are planning to leave. It is highly likely that Khan, given his own experience, will want to encourage high-performers to stay." SOURCE: https://www.wealthbriefingasia.com/article

The Uphill Journey to a BRICS Currency

"The South African government  announced  in May that discussions around setting up a common currency will be on the agenda of the BRICS summit in August. Calls for the bloc, made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, to work together to boost non-dollar trade have increased over recent months." SOURCE: https://chinaglobalsouth.com/2023/05/23/the-uphill-journey-to-a-brics-currency/

Haredi ministers said to voice objections to Ben Gvir’s measure on ‘Zionist values’

FROM THE LIVEBLOG OF SUNDAY, MAY 28, 2023 . "   According to Channel 12 news, Shas Minister Moshe Arbel and United Torah Judaism Minister Meir Porush express concerns the measure will hurt the Haredi community on the grounds that it will prioritize IDF soldiers and military veterans. “A dangerous thing is developing here,” Porush reportedly says, while the network quotes Arbel saying “this is dangerous.” SOURCE  https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/haredi-ministers-said-to-voice-objections-to-ben-gvirs-measure-on-zionist-values/

Teaching Islam in schools promotes tolerance

  " In German-speaking areas of Switzerland, denominational Islamic religious instruction is currently given at eight schools in four cantons (Lucerne, Zurich, Thurgau, Schaffhausen) – according to the results of the study. This teaching, like Catholic or Protestant instruction, complements the compulsory lessons about questions of ethics and religions. Associations responsible for this type of teaching create a broad base that includes parents, local governments and churches. The lessons provide age-appropriate teachings of Islam, which is geared towards the Swiss context. While legal recognition of a religious organisation is a prerequisite for teaching religion in the majority of Swiss cantons, in some cantons there is a bit of leeway. In Western Switzerland, for example, religious education is entirely the responsibility of the state. In some cases, excursions offer the opportunity to explore religious buildings and meet representatives of religious communities. Thus, teachi

Georgian billionaire wins $926 million from Credit Suisse after fraud

By  John Revill May 26, 2023 7:51 PM GMT+5 "Singapore's International Commercial Court said a unit of Credit Suisse had not acted in good faith and neglected to keep the assets of Bidzina Ivanishvili safe, in the latest blow to the troubled bank, which is being taken over by UBS   (UBSG.S) . Credit Suisse immediately said it would appeal the decision. B illionaire businessman Ivanishvili, who was Georgia's prime minister in 2012 to 2013, had placed $1.1 billion under the custodianship of Credit Suisse Trust in 2005, the court heard." SOURCE https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/credit-suisse-ordered-pay-926-million-georgia-prime-minister-case-2023-05-26/

Implications of the Iran-Saudi Deal for Pakistan

Written by Syed Ali Abbas May 9, 2023 " Pakistan values its close ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran is an important neighbor, and Saudi Arabia employs almost three million overseas Pakistanis and provides financial support in times of need. Pakistan can use this opportunity to seek crucial investments from both countries to ensure the China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor’s success. Saudi Arabia and Iran are participants in the BRI. (Belt and Road Initiative) Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have already shown interest in investing in Pakistan. Iran has vast reserves of untapped natural gas and energy resources that could help develop Pakistan’s gas and electricity transmission systems to overcome the burgeoning energy crisis. Similarly, it would benefit Pakistan to attract  investments  from Saudi Arabia to develop its oil and gas sector—particularly in exploration and production—which could help reduce the country’s reliance on imported oil, shoring up foreign exchange reserves.  Pakis

A Deutsche Bank director that left for Meta is "coming home"

 " (Renato)  Manna joins Deutsche Bank as its head of architecture for the central risk office (CRO) in what he describes as "an evolution of what I was doing earlier." He was previously head of financial risk domain architecture. He says he was formerly "responsible for the  technology strategy  and roadmap" of all financial risk functions. His new role also encompasses non-financial risk domains. He spent a year and a half at  Meta , specifically focusing on e-commerce platforms across the Meta suite. Prior to that he spent over a decade in banking, starting at Credit Suisse. He joined Deutsche Bank's London team as a VP in 2016 and became a director in 2020." SOURCE: https://www.efinancialcareers.com/news/2023/05/deutsche-bank-meta-engineer

& Morgan Stanley reached the same conclusion about hiring. Why banker layoffs are about more than cost-cutting

 " At least seven more top Barclays  bankers have resigned to join to UBS Group  in the United States. They include:  Laurence Braham, Richard Hardegree, Richard Casavechia, Ozzie Ramos, Jason Williams, Neil Meyer and Ken Tittle. ( Reuters)   Freya van Oorsouw , Credit Suisse's head of financial sponsors, is joining Deutsche Bank .  (Financial News ) BNP Paribas hired Credit Suisse's event driven team in London .  (The Trade)    Former Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley fixed income trader  Beatriz Martin shrunk UBS's fixed income business for Sergio Ermotti in 2012. Now she's doing it again.  (Reuters)  Goldman Sachs is opening an  Abu Dhabi office, which will initially focus on asset management.  (Bloomberg)  “I don’t have one friend in their 50s who has remained in their corporate jobs. These are women who have run companies, but they’re all doing other things now —sitting on boards, starting businesses and usually working from home.”  (Bloomberg)  Chris Hladczu

JEFFERY EPSTEIN NIGHTMARE HAUNTING THE BIG

JP Morgan Chase's CEO Jamie Dimon affirmed on the oath that he never met the Bank's former client Jeffery Epstein , nor was involved in any internal decision to retain the disgraced the late financier after concerns were raised about his sex crimes, JP Morgan Chase said Friday .  SOURCE:  https://www.ft.com/content/fe251d11-794c-4573-9bf4-559a74993a1a

MORGAN STANLEY LAY OFF. 3000 JOBS OR 7% FROM INVESTMENT BANKERS AND TRADERS.

 " The  long awaited event  appears to be unfolding." "To recap, Morgan Stanley is thought to be  cutting 3,000 jobs , with investment bankers and traders most exposed to the scythe.  Bloomberg  reported previously that Morgan Stanley's wealth management staff should be immune to being cut . It also reported that Morgan Stanley was considering laying off  7% of its investment bank jobs  in Asia. " " It's a bad time to be a managing producer unless you're also a good producer," says the head of one New York search firm. " If you're not making money yourself, you will be pushed out now. The worst position to be in is that of the non-producing manager. If you're - say - head of North American sales trading now, you need to be talking to your clients  and  managing the team, or you're out." Revenues in Morgan Stanley's institutional securities unit (investment bank) fell 11% year-on-year in the first quarter and profit

Hybrid Work Model, a new emerging challenge

  What is a hybrid work model? "Hybrid work is a people-first approach to managing the workforce that drives increased productivity and job satisfaction while addressing the major challenges of remote work, such as isolation and lack of community . A hybrid work model provides employees with greater flexibility and the option to work from home or anywhere they can be productive. With hybrid work, the workplace is no longer inside the four walls of the corporate offic e —it’s an ecosystem of employees working from home, in coworking spaces, and the office. Team members can migrate between various locations depending on the work they need to get done. The hybrid work model can take different forms depending on the organization and the type of work being done." These are the four most common hybrid work models: 1. Flexible hybrid work model  2. Fixed Hybrid work Model  3. Office First Hybrid work Model  4. Remote First Hybrid work Model Source:  https://www.webex.com/what-i

Morgan Stanley's ex-terrorism specialist ( Valentina Soria) joins UBS in London

  by Alex McMurray   "(Valentina)  Soria, an Italian based in London, joins UBS as its global head of cyber threat intelligence and adversarial threat modelling. She was at Morgan Stanley for six and a half years, starting as the EMEA cyber threat intelligence lead and rising to head of global threat intelligence. Prior to that she was head of intelligence at the Bank of England. She leaves at a tumultuous time for the US bank as other senior  London officials are reportedly included  in its 3000 person job cuts." SOURCE:  https://www.efinancialcareers.com/news/2023/05/morgan-stanley-ubs-intelligence

American offices are half-empty. That could be the next big risk for banks. (CRE. )

Analysis by  Julia Horowitz , CNN "London CNN  —  From Dallas and Minneapolis to New York and Los Angeles, offices  sit vacant  or underused, showing the staying power of the  work-from-home era . But clear   desks and quiet break rooms aren’t just a  headache for bosses  eager to gather teams in person." " Investors and regulators, on high alert for  signs of trouble  in the financial system following recent bank failures, are now homing in on the downturn in the $20 trillion US commercial real estate market." " America’s top banker, JPMorgan Chase  (JPM)  CEO Jamie Dimon,  told CNN Thursday  that he couldn’t be sure whether more banks will fail this year. Yet he was quick to point out that the current situation was very different to the 2008 global financial crisis, when there were “hundreds of institutions around the world with far too much leverage.” " You have fundamentals under pressure from work from home at a time when lending is less available t

EMPTY OFFICES ARE TICKING TIME BOMB FOR BANKERS IN PERSPECTIVE OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE.

 " Another banking crisis is looming, said  The Economist . "A combination of nasty events" has produced a "hellish-perfect-dumpster-fire-storm" for investors in commercial real estate, landlords, and their financiers. Building owners are slowly accepting the idea that, thanks to remote and hybrid work, their office properties are "unlikely to fill up again" and are therefore worth "only half what they paid for them." In the extreme case of San Francisco, office vacancies have hit 33 percent, more than eight times the pre-pandemic level." " Almost $1.5 trillion in U.S. commercial debt will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months , according to Morgan Stanley, said Alena Botros in  Fortune ."  " The recent banking crisis will only "exacerbate the existing lack of liquidity" as banks tighten lending standards. Interest rates are 450 basis points higher than they were a year ago. Delinquencies could cut comm

CRE ( Commercial Real Estate) the next nightmare as like MBS. of 2008 ?

  " JPMorgan & Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that the next jolt to the American banking system could come from commercial real-estate (CRE) loans. Stress has been mounting for months in the  commercial property industry , which is being buffeted by headwinds including  high interest rates,  tighter credit conditions,  and work-from-home trends ( freelancing)  causing office vacancies. That's fueling concerns about potential loan defaults by the more vulnerable borrowers in the sector." SOURCE:  https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jamie-dimon-commercial-real-estate-higher-interest-rates-2023-5